Heidi in Wonderland

A tariff war and buy-Canadian impulse activated by US President Donald Trump have conspired to seismically shifted the competitive landscape for architectural coatings in Canada according to my sources. 

Last week an expert in that market reported to me that Sherwin-Williams, Pittsburgh and Benjamin Moore were all down 20% in that country for the first half of this year. 

A source at Benjamin Moore confirmed the probability of that scoop, sharing that the company was down almost 20% in Canada for the first half of the year before recovering its momentum though they are still likely to finish the year down mid-single digits. Which all sounds like good news for Cloverdale Paints, Canada's largest manufacturer of architectural coatings and owners of Rodda and Miller Paints in the United States. 

Also from Canada comes word of changes at Pittsburgh where CEO Brian Carson has ordered the company’s estimated 250 Dulux stores to be rebranded as Canadian Industries Limited, perhaps in the hope of convincing Canucks he's one of them, though no stores have been rebanded at this time.

With the name change though came layoffs in the labs, throughout the supply chain and across middle management. With at-least one manufacturing facility, labs and several stores already closed, the pension plan for non-union employees terminated and reduced automobile reimbursements it seems Carson is settling in to keep operating in Canada.

At-least until he can find a buyer.

Are You Surprised?

Last week I spoke with independent paint retailers representing a combined 200+ storefronts, a bounty of data for any paint geek and exactly the sort of comparative information my finance bros like to pay for so I was happy to get the download.

Those dealers confirmed that while they remain concerned for America’s macroeconomic future life in present day is just fine, with all reporting better results than any of the national paint brands. Despite that success it was their commentary rather than results which got the asterisks in my notes.

A surprising number commented on the volume of inbound traffic they’re receiving from employees at Sherwin-Williams, mostly store and assistant store managers looking for a way out of those jobs. Perhaps not surprising considering how many of them are likely to be victims of a wage theft scheme perpetrated in this era by CEO Heidi Petz.

Though it wasn’t her idea originally. 

Also frequently mentioned was how aggressive Benjamin Moore seems when it comes to pricing painters in their markets, an extension of the effort Moore is making nationally to narrow the gap between their products and comparables at Sherwin-Williams.  A path they’ve been on since Warren Buffett put a sales rep in THE captain’s chair. 

A few even mentioned that Sherwin now seems timid with their pricing, no longer willing to use their size advantage to make the sale at any price.  That comports with what Petz has been saying about her plan to prioritize margin before share, a transformation for the former pricing bully.  

But when it comes to rezi-repaint Heidi still thinks Sherwin’s growing faster? 

A former chemist at Behr was in touch to share details of the November 4^th layoffs at that company, a move which cost more than 50 employees in the labs their jobs.  Employees let go received health care paid until the end of the year and two-weeks severance for each year on the job. 

The chemist felt mislead by their managers who just one-week earlier had shared that the third-quarter bonus projection had been met and that Behr paid out more in bonuses in 2025 than they had in the same quarter last year.  Further buttressing the story of Behr’s success was the claim that the company is gaining market share in the crucial Pro Painter segment.  Something Behr also bragged about during a webcast presentation of their third quarter financial results.    

Good thing Heidi wasn’t on the call.