I Wasn't

There’s a wide enough range of expectations amongst analysts following Sherwin-Williams to assume that at some point soon at-least half will be wrong with only the future to know which half.

Almost only.

Amongst the bulls are Bank of America who recently upgraded Sherwin’s stock from underperform to neutral and the Royal Bank of Scotland who gave them an outperform rating while raising Sherwin’s target stock price.

Repping the bears are the analysts at Trefis who believe there are a “few things to fear” in Sherwin-Williams’ future given their “overall weak operating performance and financial condition.”  Trefis rated the stock as unattractive assigning Sherwin only “moderate downturn resistance.”

Which may still be optimistic considering Sherwin’s $13 billion in debt and Lilliputian cash position.

Splitting the difference is TV personality Jim Cramer who posits that “Sherwin-Williams shouldn’t be a sell.”  The MSNBC stock guru only recommends Sherwin though to those who believe that “people are gonna fix up their houses.” Which sounds more like blind faith than any considered analysis. 

During a channel check last week I joked that Warren Buffet was hoarding cash so that when shit hits the fan he can buy Sherwin-Williams, only realizing afterwards that it might not have been a joke. With 30% of her earnings committed to paying dividends and billions more to stock buybacks Sherwin CEO Heidi Petz needs the registers to keep ringing to avoid cutting the dividend.

Am I the only one who remembers the last time that happened?

The nation’s largest home improvement retailer Home Depot reported last week that sales in Q2 grew 2.8% as compared to last year, below the rate of inflation in their basket of products. Sales for the trailing 52-weeks were up just 1%, more signs of weakness in the home building and improvement segments.

Management referred to positive comps in 12 of the company’s 16 merchandising departments, among the losers paint, where share in the DIY segment continues to slip. Masco’s results released just days earlier further corroborate that assumption. 

More foreboding for both Pittsburgh and Sherwin-Williams.

It’s Time to Wake Up!

My mother favorited the story of my first haircut and were my life to become a movie she would have picked this young boy to recreate that scene.  Until last week, my last good cry in the barber’s chair. 

A lasting affectation of my 35-years in the Bronx is an insistence on barbers of Dominican descent; if you’re from New York, I know you know.  Moving to Stamford I auditioned replacements hopscotching the field of Dominican barbers dotting the city before selecting Martin, who treats my head as if what he does matters. 

THE barber’s chair is chiller than yoga and often allows a nap while reclined under the hot towel, though last week that chill was gone. Disturbed by the violence of ICE agents who invaded Stamford last week leaving one father still missing.    

As Martin worked he lamented on the condition of his business, down 90% in July with August beginning no better.  The other two barbers reported similar results, though their reclining gave evidence enough of conditions in the shop. Those stark results begged what seemed the obvious question: Was their clientele filled with people here illegally?

Which stopped the chatter momentarily while Martin addressed them in Spanish. 

When he was done one shared that none of his clients were here illegally and that as a group they only knew of two out of the nearly 1,000 heads the men keep well groomed.  Hardly enough to be responsible for such losses I followed up my question, their answer recreating what my mother experienced that first time she put me in the barber’s chair.      

The rest stay away out of fear the men said.  Were their shop not so small and off the beaten path they might have stayed away themselves, rather than to risk being Latin in Donald Trump’s America where men like Martin and his comrades can lose their freedom indiscriminately. 

And some do not get it back.     

Two of the men shared that they were green card holders, including Martin who offered how much they paid in taxes, rents and other contributions to Stamford’s economy.  He asked if I knew why this was all happening, which I answered in a word before bringing the conversation back to topics more germane. 

The third shared that he was a US citizen, born and raised in the Bronx before resettling in Stamford, the same path to our meeting which I took myself.

But that path did not confer the same citizenship on us both, a fact in evidence as I walked out the door to make my way home. To arrive I’ll cut a path along one of Stamford’s main drags, unconcerned that ICE will accost me along my way.  While he hides from a government violating its oath, not even free to walk me home.

And if he was not free was I?