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Nothing Lasts Forever

Sherwin-Williams recently reported that while revenue for the year was up slightly, THE company had realized a low single digit sales decrease in gallon volume as compared to the first three quarters of last year.  As was also the case at paint makers PPG and RPM


And retailers Home Depot and Lowes!


All which left me wondering: were the macroeconomic trends impacting paint manufacturers and national retailers also impacting THE independent channel?


Recently I blogged that curiosity, and I asked retailers to reach out to me and share their year in numbers.  My hope being that enough of you shared their results, I would be able to provide an informed estimate for THE channel's performance in 2023. 


And as always, you came through!  

Since the pandemic’s onset in early 2020, independent paint retailers have experienced a meteoric rise in volume with most dealers experiencing double-digit increases: back-to-back-to-back-to-back!


Considering that history, it came as no surprise that most of the dealers who responded to my query shared news of lower paint sales.  Good fortune never lasts forever.


Some who responded were afraid it might!

 With your feedback in hand and only two weeks remaining to the year I feel confident forecasting that 2023 will be the first year in five that Benjamin Moore and the independent channel will achieve lower unit sales.


Likely a little more than 10% lower, which is great news for independent paint retailers.

And #Dan


Under normal economic conditions a double-digit volume decrease would raise red flags and blood pressures in Montvale. 


but in numbers, post pandemic consumers continue to show a preference for shopping local, with both Benjamin Moore and independent paint retailers among THE benefactors of that shift.  Many dealers I know are now double their pre-pandemic sizes.  A staggering rate of growth in volume and market share in such a condensed timeframe.


Benjamin Moore being down comparably the same percentage as the wider industry, means independents are holding tight on to those market share gains!


This is THE End!


Few items portend excitement more than a passport and power adaptor and my need for both last week lived up to THE hype!  

 I spent half the week in the offices of a paint applicator and sundry manufacturer headquartered in the United Kingdom.  The second of what I expect will be multiple jaunts across the pond as my client develops their plans to enter the North American market. 


For reasons of stealth and privacy, they've asked that I not reveal their name during the planning process, though a handful of you already know!

Sans some minor exceptions, the trip was my ultimate work commitment for the year.  That break allowing me to add a brief vacation to my planned year-end laze.    


Had I done any research before packing my bags I would have known that the city of Edinburgh’s nickname is Auld Reekie, Scottish for Old Smokey.

The epithet warning enough to leave the drone at home, its weight with batteries and remote hardly worth the schlep. The restrictive air space only adding to the inconvenience.

Though since I bothered, I may as well flex the (one good) picture I got!



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